A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
