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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.