Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
