🔗 Share this article

An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in remarks that exceed previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is completely untested.”